trojan Trojans tight end AJ Lewis (84) scores on a 8-yard touchdown pass during the very first quarter that the college football game between the troy Trojans and Akron Zips ~ above September 21, 2019, at Summa field at InfoCision stadion in Akron, OH. Picture by frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty images
trojan Trojans

When: Saturday, September 28 at 6 p.m.

You are watching: Troy vs arkansas state prediction

Where: Veterans Memorial stadion in Troy, Alabama

How: ESPN+

Line: trojan -6.5, o/u 61

Series History: Arkansas State 9-6

Last week, we got a sneak preview during the 3 OT thriller, 37-34 win for Texas State end Georgia State, as to what conference play could be like this year because that the sunlight Belt.

This week, we have actually a full slate of sunlight Belt games.

Keys come the Game

Troy Trojans: Defense, defense, defense. The Trojans require to get after new starter Layne Hatcher in this game and also not permit him time to sit in the pocket and target his peak wideout, Bayless, downfield.

Bayless has currently racked up 476 yards, 18.3 YPC, and also 6 TDs in simply 4 games. This front 7 for Troy demands to beat fast and also aggressive in the box, when the secondary must border the big plays; keep everything in front and rally for the tackle.

On the various other end, the offense should have no problem. The Red wolf are enabling 34.25 points every game. Granted, Fromm and the Bulldogs space a large reason for the in placing up 55 against them.

Nonetheless, the Trojans should have no problems moving the sphere on offense. Billingsley and Woolfolk stepped in nicely taking care of the workload in the backfield.

trojan Trojans running ago Trevon Woolfolk (33) carries the football throughout the second quarter of the college football game between the troy Trojans and Akron Zips on September 21, 2019, in ~ Summa field at InfoCision stadion in Akron, OH. Picture by candid Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty pictures Arkansas State Red Wolves: Capitalize on a weak Trojans secondary. Troy has provided up six passing TDs in simply 3 games, consisting of a 463 yard, 3 TD game through the air to Southern miss out on quarterback, Jack Abraham.

Troy’s adversaries have been unsuccessful in establishing any type of sort that ground video game thus much this season. Much more the factor why the Red Wolves have to look to attack and expose the Trojans in the pass game.

Hatcher it s okay the nod over injured quarterback Logan Bonner.

If Hatcher have the right to hit his open up receivers and let them go to work, the Trojans can be in for a long day top top defense.

For the Arkansas State defense, store Barker in check. Coming off back-to-back solid outings, he will certainly be looking to store that momentum entering this contest.

With blacksmith out, Barker is the key to this offense. Various other than the handful of tote that will be split between the backfield, the violation runs heavily through Barker, together he is among the much better quarterbacks in the conference.

ATS Prediction:

Troy is receiving 57% of the tickets accounting for 77% the the dollars therefore why the line has jumped as much as trojan -7.5.

Sharp activity drew the line earlier down to -6.5 whereby it at this time sits. I expect this action to continue. If money on trojan brings the line as much as the an essential number the -7, sharps are most likely to jump on it.

As because that the total, it opened at 55.5 and also has moved all the means up come the current number of 61 due to over 90% of the tickets comes in on the over.

Although Arkansas State is sit at 2-2, their two losses have concerned SMU and also UGA. Both room 4-0 due to solid quarterback play from Buechele and also Fromm, respectively.

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Troy endured a challenging loss against Southern miss in main 3, no only due to the fact that of the score, but additionally the loss of BJ Smith for the season. The Trojans were able to bounce earlier in week 4 in a rout of the Akron Zips.

Like the sharps, I will certainly be spring to take Arkansas State in ~ anything +7 or better. I think the Red Wolves will prove to it is in a challenging game for the Trojans and also would be more than willing

to take it the Red wolf plus the point out in the an initial Sun Belt game for each of this teams.