Tracking the odds that the contestants will win MTV"s dating fact show. Featuring rapid recaps because that each AYTO episode, grids, burndown charts, strategy, and an explanation of the blackout rule. Featured in Elle, Vice, and also more. Read the episode 1 write-up if you desire to know just how this works.

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Welcome earlier Nicole for a guest blog!9:03 N: Mike is getting very real appropriate away9:04 A: Seems like they didn"t get their partying ~ above enough throughout the first week, for this reason the men are gaining the party started!9:04 N: It"s Ozzy"s birthday tomorrow, ns wonder if he it s okay the exact same birthday current that Mike got9:05 N: MTV casting fail, people that don"t want to party and also act trashy? Tyler and also Taylor, sort of feel favor their names space too similar9:07 N: Confessional boner!!!9:07 A: Andre and Alicia headed to the boom Boom Room... Several chemistry going on9:10 N: It"s an obstacle time!9:12 A: The guys are walking to be tied to posts and the girls space going come tie them up and find them by smell.9:13 N:Tyler look at SOOOO disappointed the Hannah (8.2%) preferred his scent.9:14 A: Alicia find Andre (17.8%) because he smells favor Fritos!9:15 N:Kari studied neuroscience in college, clearly took notes... That"s why she winner this gain away date with Joey (8.2%).9:18 N:Shower show and tell time. Kam, you are looking.Truth Booth9:28 N: not shocking the it"s Andre and also Aliciaheaded to the reality Booth. These two are going come be devastated if they are not a match.9:30 A: No market this week to profession the fact booth for an extra $150,000 added to the prize. Let"s run those numbers anyway...Estimatedvalue of forfeiting truth booth because that $150,000: $1.54Estimatedvalue that going to the reality booth: $1.89Estimatedvalue of losing the reality booth: $1.62It"s precious trading the fact booth for approximately: $413,6919:34 A: No match! Brings us down to 5,540,084 combine remaining.

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AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
X9.9%9.9%10.8%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.9%9.8%9.9%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
10.8%8.4%8.4%X8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%8.4%21.7%8.4%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
9.9%7.8%19.6%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.8%7.6%7.8%
9.9%19.6%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%7.8%
9.8%7.6%7.6%21.7%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.6%7.5%7.6%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.6%19.6%
9.9%7.8%7.8%8.4%7.8%7.8%7.8%7.8%19.6%7.6%7.8%
9:35 A: currently Hannah trying to speak Alicia out of Andre.9:36 N: What"s a "mandle"?9:37 N: Alicia is not a happy camper. So numerous female eye rolls9:37 A: Hannah was simply trying to relocate in ~ above Andre as shortly as she could.Matchup Ceremony
9:45 A: many people choosing differently... This actually is a good strategy because that narrowing a many possibilities, yet risk that a blackout is high.9:47 A: Hilarious little bit by Michael (who watch a little like Kevin Love?) and also Hannah phone call Gianna Trump.Osvaldo - KariOzzy - KathrynJaylan - KamEdward - ShannonDerrick - AliciaHayden - TaylorAndre - HannahMichael - GiannaJoey - Carolina (repeat from episode 1)Mike - CasandraTyler - TyrannyBlackout odds: 36.0% (1,997,186 out of 5,540,084)Instant win possible: No, did no repeat two matchups from episode 1Maximum number of lights: 9Most likely number of lights: 110:00 A: Blackout!!! they lose half a million dollars and still have actually 1,997,186 possibilities left.AndreDerrickEdwardHaydenJaylanJoeyMichaelMikeOsvaldoOzzyTylerAliciaCarolinaCasandraGiannaHannahKamKariKathrynShannonTaylorTyranny
XX10.8%11.9%10.9%12.3%10.9%10.9%10.9%10.6%10.8%
12.3%9.9%9.6%10.5%9.6%X9.7%9.6%9.6%9.4%9.6%
10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%21.5%9.6%8.2%X8.2%8.0%8.2%
11.9%9.2%8.8%X8.8%10.5%X8.8%8.8%24.1%8.8%
X8.7%8.4%9.2%8.4%9.9%22.1%8.4%8.4%8.2%8.4%
10.8%8.4%21.5%8.9%X9.6%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%8.2%
10.9%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%21.5%X8.0%8.2%
10.8%21.8%8.1%8.8%8.1%9.6%8.2%8.1%8.1%X8.1%
10.6%8.2%X24.1%8.0%9.4%8.0%8.0%8.0%7.8%8.0%
10.9%8.5%8.2%X8.2%9.7%8.2%8.2%8.2%8.0%21.8%
10.8%8.4%8.2%8.9%8.2%9.6%8.2%8.2%21.5%8.0%X

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